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Housing Expected to Recover in... 2025!

According to CNNMoney, housing prices are not expected to recover until the year 2025—assuming the world doesn't end before then. Housing prices have fallen more in the last five years than they did during the Great Depression, and prices continue to fall. In fact, price declines in Phoenix ranked #2 in the entire country at just over -8% year-over-year.

CNNMoney warns not to mistake good prices for a looming recovery:

While house prices are now on par with levels seen a decade ago, the economic outlook for the United States and most of its citizens looks a lot less optimistic now than it did in 1999. Incomes have been falling as more workers are forced to compete with cheaper overseas labor, and the leverage that Americans used for years to fill a growing wage gap now looks like a decidedly mixed blessing. Massive debt and government belt tightening are likely to keep a lid on the economy for years, further limiting household gains.

It took 19 years for housing prices to recover after the Depression and analysts expect a 13-19 year recovery time frame for our current market. Our opinion is this—if you are upside down on your mortgage and want to get out, now is the perfect time to sell your house as a short sale and buy again when the market is truly appreciating. It's a smart financial decision.


Phoenix No. 2 in Home Price Declines, Double-Dip Confirmed

Home prices in the Phoenix area took another dump in March, posting the 2nd highest year-over-year home price declines nationally according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Index released on Tuesday.

The average home price in greater Phoenix fell by 8.4% compared to 3.6% nationally. Phoenix was bested only by Minneapolis which posted 10% declines in the last 12 months. In the January 2010 thru March 2011 timeframe, prices in the greater Phoenix area fell by 1.2%.

According to the Phoenix Business Journal, prices in greater Phoenix are essentially where they were in January 2000.

Double-Dipping

According to CNNMoney, the dreaded double-dip has officially arrived. We have been talking about the double-dip here for several weeks. But the news has finally caught national attention, so now it must be true.

According to most experts, the double-dip is really a misnomer. The brief pricing bounce seen last year was largely due to the fed's home buyer tax credit which pulled a lot of buyers out of the woodwork. However, once the tax incentive expired, sales fell off a cliff. So while the data shows a double-dip, in actuality it is simply a continuation of the same market decline we've ben seeing for the last five years. What happened last year was merely a blip.

 


Tenants - Protect Yourselves Against Foreclosure

The makers of NetValue Central have put together a very useful web site to assist tenants with determining whether the property they live in has gone to foreclosure. This tool also helps homeowners determine their property values and lets them know what properties in their neighborhoods have gone to foreclosure.

https://www.aznvc.com/

If you are a rental tenant, please click on the above link and sign up to have your property address monitored. We sell a lot of foreclosures and talk to a lot of tenants who were taken by surprise. Tools like these can help you avoid those unpleasant surprises which always happen when you least expect them.


Looking for Sarah Palin's Address?

According to CCNMoney, Sarah Palin just paid $1,695,000 for a house in Scottsdale. Here is a picture of the supposed purchase published on CNNMoney:

Sarah Palin's Alleged New Home in Scottsdale

Five minutes of digging into Maricopa County tax records yielded a sale at exactly $1,695,000 recorded to Safari Investments LLC on May 13, 2011. This property was listed as MLS #4539196. Here is the picture from MLS listing: 

Does it look like the same house? You be the judge.

Did Palin get Ripped Off?

According to the same public tax records, this house previously sold as a foreclosure to an Ian Whitmore for $803,650. If this is Sarah Palin's house, she certainly paid a pretty penny for it. SHE PAID FULL PRICE IN A DEPRESSED MARKET! The woman didn't even negotiate a lower price—people think she is presidential material?

Ian, my friend, how does it feel to stare a gift horse in the mouth?


Foreclosure Misses the High End

According to December's Cromford Report, higher-end homes in the valley have shown the least amount of depreciation from the peak versus properties much closer to the median home price. Let's take a look at the lowest depreciation in the valley compared to the peak:

Rank City ZIP Peak $/SF Qtrly Avg Qtrly Avg $/SF Dec 2010 Decline in $/SF Since Peak Foreclosure Rank
112 Paradise Valley 85253 $509.75 $259.88 -49.0% 125
113 Tempe 85282 $171.09 $87.35 -48.9% 109
114 Phoenix 85054 $259.86 $133.89 -48.5% 102
115 Scottsdale 85260 $303.78 $156.64 -48.4% 105
116 Mesa 85206 $163.18 $84.32 -48.3% 99
117 Scottsdale 85251 $269.87 $139.84 -48.2% 111
118 Phoenix 85045 $214.22 $111.24 -48.1% 98
119 Gilbert 85233 $178.80 $94.61 -47.1% 78
120 Tempe 85283 $180.75 $96.40 -46.7% 117
121 Chandler 85249 $186.05 $99.51 -46.5% 77
122 Phoenix 85044 $208.56 $111.82 -46.4% 123
123 Scottsdale 85258 $317.63 $170.51 -46.3% 126
124 Chandler 85286 $181.65 $99.03 -45.5% 79
125 Scottsdale 85254 $243.68 $133.85 -45.1% 104
126 Scottsdale 85259 $311.72 $171.86 -44.9% 114
127 Phoenix 85048 $215.93 $121.37 -43.8% 107
128 Tempe 85284 $219.39 $128.03 -41.6% 128
129 Scottsdale 85255 $338.65 $199.87 -41.0% 116
130 Sun Lakes 85248 $198.80 $118.55 -40.4% 127
131 Sun City West 85375 $162.05 $99.26 -38.7% 131

Compare this to properties closer to median home price:

Rank City ZIP Peak $/SF Qtrly Avg Qtrly Avg $/SF Dec 2010 Decline in $/SF Since Peak Foreclosure Rank
1 Phoenix 85009 $154.23 $25.27 -83.6% 27
2 Phoenix 85035 $157.33 $30.65 -80.5% 11
3 Phoenix 85031 $132.12 $26.31 -80.1% 10
4 Phoenix 85033 $148.40 $30.16 -79.7% 8
5 Phoenix 85017 $149.98 $30.79 -79.5% 16
6 Phoenix 85019 $142.86 $33.47 -76.6% 19
7 Tonopah 85354 $149.71 $38.26 -74.4% 5
8 Phoenix 85008 $184.78 $50.55 -72.6% 45
9 Avondale 85392 $195.00 $54.09 -72.3% 20
10 Youngtown 85363 $155.00 $43.09 -72.2% 14
11 Glendale 85301 $143.74 $40.18 -72.0% 26
12 Buckeye 85326 $161.85 $45.69 -71.8% 6
13 El Mirage 85335 $153.82 $45.43 -70.5% 4
14 Phoenix 85037 $153.92 $45.68 -70.3% 3
15 Waddell 85355 $237.32 $70.46 -70.3% 53
16 Phoenix 85040 $158.54 $47.37 -70.1% 24
17 Phoenix 85043 $158.44 $48.29 -69.5% 1
18 Buckeye 85396 $210.32 $65.46 -68.9% 32
19 Phoenix 85051 $148.66 $47.24 -68.2% 31
20 Tolleson 85353 $148.36 $47.93 -67.7% 2

Discounted REOs in the higher-end market should represent tremendous values for today's buyers. The statistics also show that from a long term perspective, high-end properties do show a track record of retaining a much higher percentage of their value. Even though properties have dropped by almost 50% on the high end, that number jumps to almost 84% on lower priced homes.

If you are looking to buy or sell a higher end home, we have the knowledge and expertise you need to help you make the right decision.

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West USA Realty
16150 N. Arrowhead Fountains Center Dr. Suite 100 • Peoria, AZ 85382
Office: (480) 302-9650 • Fax: (480) 223-6338




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